After
a century in the political wilderness,
the Conservative Party has won the provincial election in British
Columbia coming away with 64 seats and 48% of the popular vote.
Despite very low voter turnout (around 47%), the party’s share of
the popular vote increased 5% against an 8 % decline for the
incumbent NDP (New Democrat Party). The Greens (a minor party in
Canadian politics) picked up 3% against the 2024 election but
remained firmly anchored at just two seats.
David Eby, (now former) leader of the NDP and deposed Premier of BC, called
the election two years early when the Opposition Party
(Conservatives) were in some disarray. This is a dirty trick, even
for politics, which nevertheless spectacularly back-fired, although
the NDP did post on X on Saturday night a congratulatory tweet to Eby
for retaining his seat proving once again that the left has simply
become impossible to parody (Eby won a seat and lost an election).
On “the socials” NDP supporters are, of course, struggling to
cope and delivering up implausible explanations for why the NDP lost.
Among people I used to know while living in BC, the most popular
explanation is some kind of tortuous strangulation of voting numbers
noting that less people voted for the Conservatives in 2026 than 2024
(currently 49,895 less). What is omitted from this explanation is
that the NDP recorded 274,678 less votes than 2024. In other words,
the NDP lost 5.5 times as many absolute voter numbers than the
Conservatives.
The rise of the Conservative vote in BC, which has long been
Canada’s most left leaning province is startling. In 2020, the
Conservatives ran 19 candidates across 87 ridings and garnered a
paltry 1.9% of the vote. Under the leadership of John Rustad
(previously a Liberal MLA) from regional BC (inland northwest) the
Conservatives rocketed up to garner 43% of the popular vote and 44
seats. In terms of vote share, the Conservatives were barely behind
the NDP with 43% of the popular vote versus 45% for the NDP, a very
thin margin on which to call an early election.
Lorne Doerkson, the new leader of the Conservatives, is similar in
many respects to Rustad. He is a middle aged white guy (biologically
immutable facts which are sure to raise ire if not hatred among the
left). Doerkson is also from regional BC (Cariboo-Chilcotin) and was
originally elected as a Liberal in 2020 before joining the
Conservatives in 2024 and, like the rodeo rider he once was, he has
come out of the gate fighting with commitments to reduce taxes, move
from the so called “safe supply” of addictive drugs to a
treatment based model, and boost energy production, among other
economic and developmental goals.
This will be a shock for BC and particularly the elite
professional class which like all developed nations skews highly
left. Among University Professors, for example, around 90% of the
staff are “progressives”. I’ve put progressive in quotation
marks as there is nothing progressive about allowing people to die
like vermin on the streets from drug overdoses. Under the NDP’s
“harm reduction” policies (modelled on failed policies from
California and Oregon), more people died from drug overdoses than
Covid during the peak of the Covid years, and the leading cause of
death among those aged 10 to 59 remains drug toxicity. Repeal of
some of the more “progressive” drug policies – which even Eby
admitted had been unsuccessful – resulted in a 21% decrease in drug
deaths over two years. A significant improvement which,
nevertheless, was interpreted by proponents of “harm reduction”
as caused by something else, proving once again that hard data is
never enough to over-come ideology. I’m not sure whether it’s
ironic or evil to continue advocating for policies that cause more
people to die (often young people) simply to prove yourself
“empathetic,” but I strongly suspect it is the latter.
At the end of the day, public policy has to be driven by what
works (preferably backed by hard data) not what makes the policy
pundits feel good or what my more cynical self might call a desire to
be seen to be empathetic and caring amongst one’s social group.
Politically, I am neither left nor right. I believe in using all the
available data (which includes a basic understanding of human nature)
to make our best decisions. Decisions based on the “feels” so
often have tragic consequences because emotions are transient and
frequently unconnected to reality. Avi Lewis, the head of the
Federal NDP, posted
a typically emotional response on X where he urged “progressive
organizers” to “feel all the feelings.” Unfortunately, it’s
the “feelings” that resulted in a resounding failure for the NDP
despite overwhelming evidence that the voter base was shifting. The
time for feelings is over. Progressives need to put on their
2SLGBTQIA+ panties and focus on facts.