Are You Mad?

This year, I've given up paying much attention to the Canadian Avalanche Association's (CAA) avalanche bulletins, and weather forecasts. Despite numerous "improvements" (changes) to graphics, methods of delivery, and their overall web-site, their core product, the avalanche bulletin has continued to deteriorate over the last few years. The reason for this deterioration is not clear. At times, I think it is because they have so many different forecasters, many of whom appear to be getting trained "on the job" - with questionable success. At other times, I think it is because even the trained forecasters are attempting to do something they are not trained for - issuing a long term weather outlook. In my most skeptical moments, I just wonder if any of the forecasters know what the heck they are talking about.

On Monday, April 2, 2012, the forecast for the South Columbia included this little gem: "High and dry conditions for the foreseeable future should make for excellent ski traversing weather." The region had just come through - in fact, was still in the midst of - one of the wettest March through early April periods on record, with operations reporting upwards of 4 metres of new snow. Breaks in the constant series of Pacific storms lasted, at most, 24 hours, and frequently much less. Temperatures had been, and (by more reputable weather forecasters) were forecast to remain cool for this time of year. In fact, in the few days following this audacious pronouncement, the region picked up another 50 to 70 cm of snow.

By Easter weekend, the weather pattern had, in fact, settled into a "relatively" drier period and temperatures were on the rise. Snowfall amounts decreased and were mostly in the form of convective showers, while temperatures increased. Trail-breaking was onerous as all that new snow warmed for the first time, and stability deteriorated. All completely predictable phenomena, but, some how not predicted by the people who are supposed to be experts in the field.

Over Easter weekend, we went out and did a couple of ski ascents of local peaks, opting for day trips over a longer three day traverse we had planned, as, contrary to the CAA assertion, there was no high and dry weather system, nor were conditions conducive to covering long distances and ascending/descending steep slopes as is required on a ski traverse.

In fact, had you heeded this little gem of - dubious - wisdom, you might have found yourself high and dry.

Plenty of convective activity over Easter weekend