Blowing In The Wind: Prepare for the Worst

It’s been a windy year. Winter is always the season of the westerly wind on the coast, but lately, apparently due to Sudden Stratospheric Warming, our usual spring pattern has been disrupted by continuous strong westerly to northwesterly winds. The day before the NSW Sea Kayak Club Annual General Meeting (AGM) at Windang, Doug and I had been rock climbing at Nowra, where, on the escarpment top, the westerly wind was howling. Luckily, down at crag level, we were somewhat sheltered.

On Saturday, I had a full contingent of paddlers (six plus me) for an ocean paddle. I had originally intended to paddle out Tom Thumb Passage, turn the kayaks south and paddle down to Bushranger Bay and Maloneys Bay, two small sheltered bays on the protuberant Bass Point. In 2024, with a group of women paddlers, we had paddled out of Tom Thumb Channel and down to Kiama. The channel at that time was deep with the current running out but nothing too crazy. We had debated at length how long after the Port Kembla tide change the current would switch directions with estimates ranging from one hour (from a very confident individual) to two or more hours (me). I can now say, after observing Lake Illawarra and Tom Thumb Passage over multiple days that the current changes approximately 2.5 hours after tide change at Port Kembla.

The afternoon before Saturday’s paddle, I walked down to look at Tom Thumb Entrance. It was interesting. A strong tidal stream was running out with standing waves inside the channel (small), and a series of standing waves (a little bigger) north of Windang Island. All manageable with a competent group of paddlers, but, as I was thinking about the next day’s paddle, I started imagining the worst case scenario. It’s always useful to consider the worst case scenario in addition to your preferred (best case) scenario because if you are prepared for the worst case the best case is a doddle. If, however, you have not considered the worst case, you could find yourself in a challenging and dangerous situation.

The worst case of a capsize in or near the channel was a complex rescue in fast moving water (with standing waves) that would be further complicated by the forecast afternoon wind, paddler fatigue, and boat traffic. The more I looked at the channel, particularly in conjunction with the forecast, the more I thought about changing the launch site.

One or my issues as a leader, which will surprise anyone that knows me, is that I can be too agreeable! Impossible, I hear you say, how can anyone be too agreeable? But you can. You can agree to many things against your better judgement simply to be agreeable. Agreeableness is one of the big five personality traits. You can measure your own agreeableness here. A couple of people, including Doug, wanted to launch from Windang. To be clear, I also wanted to launch from Windang because it obviated the need to drive, but, after looking at the tide, the weather forecast, the currents, and the channel, I decided to move the launch site south to Little Beach which is a small sandy beach inside the old Shellharbour marina.

This would shorten the trip to Bass Point and back by seven kilometres and allow us time to explore the south side of Bass Point which is far more interesting than the coast immediately around Windang. The biggest boon, of course, would be shortening up the distance we would have to paddle into the wind at the end of the day. Like most people I usually plan paddle days to start into the wind and return, when people are tired, with a tail wind, but heading north from Windang is all long sandy beach and not very interesting paddling.

Which brings me naturally to the forecast weather and how confident I felt in the forecast. Meteye had a very clear and unnatural dividing line where the wind was forecast due west (10 to 15 knots) on land and north to northwest on the ocean. Life, and weather, are seldom clear cut and I was very suspicious that the strong westerlies would be, somehow, northerly, one, two or even three kilometres off shore. Maybe 10 or 20 kilometres off shore, but not along the on-shore waters that sea kayakers typically frequent.

So, an off-shore wind, the most consequential wind there is for sea kayakers. Yet another reason to launch from further south. We got away closer to 9:30 am than 9:00 am owing to the usual kerfuffle that accompanies bigger groups. I had two very willing assistants as two paddlers were working towards Paddle Australia guide status (one Enclosed Sea and one Sea Guide). I think I am too new a Sea Guide myself to be a great supervisor to aspiring guides and, of course, there is my agreeableness which makes it hard for me to correct inappropriate decisions or behaviour.

I wanted to look at emergency landing sites on the way to Bass Point so we went right into where the old jetty is that was used to load gravel on ships. There is a small boat ramp, exposed in northerlies but offering a reasonable landing in a pinch. Other than that, there is only Maloneys Bay on the south side of Bass Point or the new Shellharbour marina but if you make it that far you have only a kilometre or so to return to Little Beach.

By the time we had paddled around Bass Point and ducked into Bushranger Bay the west wind was up and passing by Maloneys Bay, exploring all the little bays and caves along the shore to Killalea Beach it was clear that a strong and gusty west wind would greet us on the north side of Bass Point. We had lunch at Maloneys Bay where there is very little sand left after a series of east coast lows. I partnered stronger paddlers with weaker paddlers before we left the beach making sure to pair PS, who has – there is no polite way to say this – a terrible paddle stroke with Doug. Paddlers can limp along with a bad stroke in benign conditions but, when you need power into a headwind, that ineffective short stroke becomes a real liability.

We were blown rapidly along the south shore of Bass Point at a cracking pace but, as we started to negotiate the rougher water on the east end of Bass Point, PS got slower and slower. My watch indicated our speed had fallen below four kilometres an hour and we were not even into the wind yet! Eventually, we got around the breaking reef that runs northeast from Bass Point and most of us were able to pick out the breakwater around the old marina that was our destination. PS, despite having it pointed out to him, could not seem to locate it and kept drifting further north.

I left PS to paddle on with Doug for 10 or 15 agonising minutes. By this time we had a headwind of about 15 to 18 knots with stronger gusts and my watch indicated our pace was, at times, as slow as 2.5 kilometres/hour. As everyone who has paddled into the wind knows, at a certain wind strength all forward progress stops because the kayaker is being blown backwards as fast or faster than they can paddle. With a wind that runs up or down the coast, there is some lee-way, but off-shore winds are dodgy. Finally, I made the call, PS needed to be towed. Doug hooked him on and immediately we were doing a much more respectable 4.5 kilometres/hour. PS started to look more comfortable and less rigid, although I am sure he was not happy with being towed.

Somewhere around 1.5 kilometres from our destination, PS had sped up enough that he passed Doug and that was our sign to remove the tow line. The wind had not decreased but we did have less chop and PS was now paddling well solo. He was still heading in the wrong direction – to the south this time – but, as I brought up the rear of the group, I could see all the paddlers in front of and, even PS, would safely hit the beach if he kept his course.

Just as we were all ready to leave to drive back to Windang, probably 40 or so minutes after we had landed, I spotted two kayakers coming in. This was the remnants, or perhaps a better term would be leading edge, of a group of five who had gone out to Bushrangers Bay. Three were no where to be seen, but, another two did come into sight very far out, probably a couple of kilometres still off-shore as we were driving off. The final and fifth paddler had somehow made his way to a rocky landing near the gravel loader jetty and had to be later retrieved by car by the other paddlers. So glad that was not my trip!