A Century in Exile

After a century in the political wilderness¹, the Conservative Party has won the provincial election in British Columbia coming away with 64 seats and 48% of the popular vote. Despite very low voter turnout (around 47%), the party’s share of the popular vote increased 5% against an 8 % decline for the incumbent NDP (New Democrat Party). The Greens (a minor party in Canadian politics) picked up 3% against the 2024 election but remained firmly anchored at just two seats.

David Eby, (now former) leader of the NDP and deposed Premier of BC, called the election two years early when the Opposition Party (Conservatives) were in some disarray. This is a dirty trick, even for politics, which nevertheless spectacularly back-fired, although the NDP did post on X on Saturday night a congratulatory tweet to Eby for retaining his seat proving once again that the left has simply become impossible to parody (Eby won a seat and lost an election).

On “the socials” NDP supporters are, of course, struggling to cope and delivering up implausible explanations for why the NDP lost. Among people I used to know while living in BC, the most popular explanation is some kind of tortuous strangulation of voting numbers noting that less people voted for the Conservatives in 2026 than 2024 (currently 49,895 less). What is omitted from this explanation is that the NDP recorded 274,678 less votes than 2024. In other words, the NDP lost 5.5 times as many absolute voter numbers than the Conservatives.

The rise of the Conservative vote in BC, which has long been Canada’s most left leaning province is startling. In 2020, the Conservatives ran 19 candidates across 87 ridings and garnered a paltry 1.9% of the vote. Under the leadership of John Rustad (previously a Liberal MLA) from regional BC (inland northwest) the Conservatives rocketed up to garner 43% of the popular vote and 44 seats. In terms of vote share, the Conservatives were barely behind the NDP with 43% of the popular vote versus 45% for the NDP, a very thin margin on which to call an early election.

Lorne Doerkson, the new leader of the Conservatives, is similar in many respects to Rustad. He is a middle aged white guy (biologically immutable facts which are sure to raise ire if not hatred among the left). Doerkson is also from regional BC (Cariboo-Chilcotin) and was originally elected as a Liberal in 2020 before joining the Conservatives in 2024 and, like the rodeo rider he once was, he has come out of the gate fighting with commitments to reduce taxes, move from the so called “safe supply” of addictive drugs to a treatment based model, and boost energy production, among other economic and developmental goals.

This will be a shock for BC and particularly the elite professional class which like all developed nations skews highly left. Among University Professors, for example, around 90% of the staff are “progressives”. I’ve put progressive in quotation marks as there is nothing progressive about allowing people to die like vermin on the streets from drug overdoses. Under the NDP’s “harm reduction” policies (modelled on failed policies from California and Oregon), more people died from drug overdoses than Covid during the peak of the Covid years, and the leading cause of death among those aged 10 to 59 remains drug toxicity. Repeal of some of the more “progressive” drug policies – which even Eby admitted had been unsuccessful – resulted in a 21% decrease in drug deaths over two years. A significant improvement which, nevertheless, was interpreted by proponents of “harm reduction” as caused by something else, proving once again that hard data is never enough to over-come ideology. I’m not sure whether it’s ironic or evil to continue advocating for policies that cause more people to die (often young people) simply to prove yourself “empathetic,” but I strongly suspect it is the latter.

At the end of the day, public policy has to be driven by what works (preferably backed by hard data) not what makes the policy pundits feel good or what my more cynical self might call a desire to be seen to be empathetic and caring amongst one’s social group. Politically, I am neither left nor right. I believe in using all the available data (which includes a basic understanding of human nature) to make our best decisions. Decisions based on the “feels” so often have tragic consequences because emotions are transient and frequently unconnected to reality. Avi Lewis, the head of the Federal NDP, posted a typically emotional response on X where he urged “progressive organizers” to “feel all the feelings.” Unfortunately, it’s the “feelings” that resulted in a resounding failure for the NDP despite overwhelming evidence that the voter base was shifting. The time for feelings is over. Progressives need to put on their 2SLGBTQIA+ panties and focus on facts.

1The Conservative Party last had a majority government in 1928.